The latest trench in the defence of Europe from the Far Right lies in Germany. Not for nothing did Vice President Vance (after delivering a Goebbels type lecture on free speech to the Europeans) meet with Alice Weidel, the leader of the AfD, Germany’s Far Right party, in Munich last week. Similarly, Elon Musk made an appearance recently at their party conference to urge them on and to state that Germans had nothing to be ashamed about in their past! The black joke doing the rounds in Munich after Vance’s speech was that the Americans had taken part in the de-Nazification of Germany after 1945 but were now heavily engaged in its re-Nazification!

Opinion polls show that the AfD are in second place with the conservative CDU in the lead. The current government parties – SPD, Greens and FDP have all seen catastrophic collapses in their levels of support. There is a feeling of malaise in Germany, with the economy seen as performing badly, increasing angst over the cost of living and a feeling that the former powerhouse of Europe has lost its way.

Immigration is big issue

Two major issues dominate this election, which many see as pivotal for both the future of Germany and of Europe, immigration and the war in Ukraine. On immigration Germany, along with Sweden, was the country which opened its doors the most to the Syrian refugees in 2015 and Merkel’s slogan “Wirschaffen das” (We can do it) was supposed to indicate Germany’s willingness to welcome and integrate refugees. It was also vital for the German economy as German business needed more workers with a falling demographic rate and big business welcomed many of the new entrants, many of whom went on to do apprenticeships and join the labour force. However, things have gone very sour in the intervening years. With unemployment rising and particularly problems with the large German car manufacturing industry, the welcome mat for migrants is no longer out. Opinion polls have shown that migration is the big issue for many voters.

The recent series of attacks by failed asylum seekers and migrants, including one by an Islamist Afghan refugee last week in Munich on Xmas markets, have been seized on by the AfD and the right-wing press have increased the political temperature even more. The Munich attack was on a trade union demonstration and on the German TV station Deutsche Welle, one of the trade unionists whose comrades were injured in the attack, appealed to German voters not to let the Far Right utilise the attack for further witch hunts and propaganda against migrants and ethnic minorities. The AfD in their election propaganda have said that they will support forced deportations of all migrants from Germany. It rounded this off with a propaganda video reminiscent of something from Hitler’s Reich of blond stewardesses and pilots singing about deportation while ushering darker looking persons up the gangway of a plane!

Sarah Wagenkneckt leads red brown current

This position has been supported by the so-called Left party Bundnis Sarah Wagenknecht, which is also deeply anti-migrant, putting forward the position that Germany is full. BSW did very well in the recent state elections in the former East and many commentators believed that they would overtake their former comrades in Die Linke, to become the main Left opposition in the German parliament as they were polling on over 5% (which is the electoral hurdle to gain seats). Wagenknecht went so far recently as to threaten legal action against the broadcasters when her party was denied a part in the leaders debate and added as part of her claim that BSW could play the role of future kingmakers with the AfD in government. Her party’s support, like that of the AfD is concentrated in the former East. I don’t classify it as a Left party but as part of the Red-Brown current, which has always existed in Germany, as it is deeply conservative on social issues and close to racist. It’s only correct stance has been vigorously opposing the genocide in Gaza and supporting Palestine.

Ukraine is a big concern for voters

The other major issue in this election is the war in Ukraine and clearly because of recent events in Munich and the gathering sense in Europe that the Europeans and US are parting company on this, will be in the news a lot on election day. Germany has always been more involved in Eastern Europe historically and German foreign policy has always seen relations with Russia as important. The role of any future German government in Europe’s reaction to the peace settlement will be vital as it still has a large manufacturing base for arms. The AfD and BSW both want Germany to have nothing to do with the war and for Ukraine to be left to its fate. Indeed the AfD is regarded as one of the pro-Putin parties across Europe and has a similar social programme to the Kremlin – anti LGBTQ etc. Initially BSW also gained a great deal of support via its opposition to the war and the ending of the supply of cheap Russian gas to Germany because of sanctions. Wagenknecht argued very effectively that German workers were paying for the cost of the Ukraine war via rising gas bills.  The AfD have argued similarly that the downturn in the German economy is due to the lack of cheap fuel from Russia and the rising costs of sustainable energy forms after the Merkel government decided to abandon nuclear energy in favour of green energy.

The CDU, likely to be the winners next week, had argued that they would be part of the firewall against the Far Right but severely weakened the argument by getting AfD votes for a measure on closing German borders to migrants in the Bundestag. The proposal was defeated but this demonstrated to voters that they would be prepared to work with the Far Right despite denying they would do so.

The Greens, now in government, have suffered the largest fall in support and this is seen as a result of pushing for environmental measures which are costly to the average citizen and the Right has argued this very powerfully, especially with regard to fuel bills.

Will Die Linke recover?

Die Linke, the traditional party of the Left, which ironically held sway until recently in the former East Germany, suffered a huge loss electorally and in membership, much of which was older and were regarded as having been superseded by BSW. They also held a disastrous position on Gaza, which lost them much support among younger and migrant voters. However, totally unexpectedly they have risen in the polls and have gained thousands of new members. At a recent seminar from Berlin, organised by the Rosa Luxemburg Foundation, there was a real atmosphere of optimism and latest polls show them as having overtaken BSW and they are now on 6% in the polls. Partly this may be because they are one of the only parties which is wholeheartedly holding the line against attacks on migrants and arguing for redistribution of wealth in an increasingly poorer and dissatisfied Germany.

The electoral maps show that virtually all of the former East will fall to the AfD, with Berlin holding out for the SPD and Die Linke. The richer south is likely to go to the CDU and many of the former industrial strongholds in the West going to the SPD. Die Linke remain strong in the far north and the cities of Bremen and Hamburg.

Opinion polls have asked German voters who they wish to see the CDU in coalition with if they take power. The majority have answered the SPD, with the AfD in second place. The big question is will the CDU hold the firewall and enter a Merkel era style Grand Coalition with the SPD or try something else? Another grand coalition could sound the death knell of the SPD and be the end of social democracy in its birthplace.

This German election is indeed pivotal for Germany and Europe and as Brecht warned after 1945, demonstrate that Fascism is alive and well and ready for a rebirth.