In the recent local elections one of the big issues for people angry with the Labour government was the removal of the winter fuel allowance from nine million pensioners. This policy was not in the Labour manifesto, nor was the maintenance of the two child benefit cap or cutting vital Personal Independence Payments from 1.32 million disabled people. Already 35,000 more children have fallen into poverty since the general election. Labour voters, many Labour members, councilors and MPs, are saying this is not what Labour governments should do.
Labour’s austerity has meant its polling is down to around 20% and Reform is pushing 30%. Recent byelections in council seats have also been won by Reform, including in areas where it has little established presence. Farage’s bubble is not bursting anytime soon and even independent specialists say he has a chance of either forming a Reform government or a hard right wing coalition with a Tory rump.
Starmer is now talking about U turns at least on the two child cap and fuel allowance. He is not doing this because he has found a heart or principles. It is mainly down to the electoral threat of Reform. Indeed, Farage has suddenly become a big defender of child benefits and the fuel allowance.
It is nothing new for far right parties to combine racist and pro-business policies with a few that favour workers – the fascists did it in the 1930s. Farage’s new found defence of child benefits is neatly linked with his enthusiasm for increasing the (white) birth rate to counter what he sees as the migrant replacement of the native population. Italian premier from the post-fascist party there is peddling the same line.
Turmoil in Labour over the cuts
The general anger and organised opposition to Labour’s austerity is the other factor forcing a slight reset. Over 100 MPs are threatening to vote or abstain on the welfare cuts. Some have expressed concern that such cuts are against ‘Labour values’. A great many are worried about Reform threatening their seats and newly acquired status. A lot less spoke out when John McDonnell and a handful of MPs voted against retaining the two child benefit cap and were suspended as a result. Nothing like an electoral threat to your seat to stiffen your sinews on such matters!
Angela Raynor, deputy prime minister, with her leaked alternative tax raising policies, is letting everyone know she could replace Starmer. She has gone along with all the other reactionary policies so far such as the anti-migrant strategy or refusing to condemn Israel’s genocide. There has been a great deal of speculation about the solidity of Starmer’s leadership. No surprise that another leadership contender, Andy Burnham, has chosen this moment to urge a more radical housing policy. Former Transport minister Louise Haigh has also chosen to challenge these cuts.
Opposition extends beyond the diminished Socialist Campaign group. Unlike Tory governments, the historic ties of Labour to the progressive movements and the trade unions mean there is likely to be greater divisions when it carries out such austerity measures. Such opposition often amounts to letting off steam and seldom results in an organised challenge to the leadership – only John McDonnell has posed the question.
Starmer is also banking on the tweaks to austerity he has announced will significantly reduce the number voting against him in parliament. The Labour apparatus is adept at allowing flexibility on abstaining as well as dangling all sorts of inducements and threats to shrink the revolt.
Tax the rich and corporate profits
Organising resistance pays. Labour MPs have been put under pressure by local activists, campaigns and some unions. However the U turns could be limited. Labour is talking about a three child limit and is hazy about how many pensioners will get their fuel allowance back. The Warm Homes Initiative is being cut back which helps poorer pensioners. Special Needs budgets are being targeted, so austerity could be reconfigured rather than stopped.
Environmental action for net zero will be further cut back. Changes to implement partial U turns will not happen until later this year so it will not stop more children falling into poverty before then
Ending austerity and really tackling inequality requires a strategy which breaks with Labour’s partnership with capital and betting on growth. It means a wealth tax – the richest 50 families own more than half of the whole population. Taxing company profits is the other way to raise the money we need. Even Gordon Brown, no revolutionary, has proposed a tax on the gambling industry and the banks.
Fake fiscal rules demanded by capitalist markets can also be changed – the International Monetary Fund has said this is possible. Our strategy has to be to begin to take control of the economy so that it works to favour the many and not the few.
John McDonnell has called for a leadership campaign to remove Starmer and to implement policies to seriously reduce inequality. For the first time, he even envisages the end of Labour if there is no decisive change. If you talk seriously about the possible end of Labour as a credible political party then logically this poses the question of building a left alternative – something that large numbers of activists are discussing on the ground at the moment. Given the weakness of the Left inside Labour at present this proposed leadership challenge may seem very optimistic.
The Labour apparatus changed the rules so that the threshold for any left challenge would be difficult to reach. It is much more likely if Starmer were to fall that you would have a challenge from the right – probably led by Streeting – and some sort of very soft left alternative probably headed up by Raynor.
Reform’s surge has also led to the Blue Labour group of MPs to push for the party to align even more than it has already with Farage’s reactionary and racist anti-migrant and anti-diversity narrative. It is more likely that the Labour leadership will bend towards their proposed line than to listen to the soft left critique.
Indeed a recent National Executive Committee decided not to hold the annual womens conference and other minority meetings. The Blue Labour clique are literally tearing up the heritage and practice of many Labour MPs and councilors who have grown up supporting multiculturalism and pro-diversity policies
Support the June 7th People’s Assembly demonstration
Starmer’s lack of a politically coherent strategy, even for his own bankrupt policies, is producing disorientation and disarray in the party as a whole. Changing policies that a few months ago Reeves was saying were vital for economic stability just looks incompetent. The fact that Farage came out in support of lifting the benefit cap and reversing the cut to the fuel allowance at the same time as Starmer announces a U turn makes it looks like Reform is making the political weather.
Labour membership is continuing to decline to the extent that the actual figures are a closely guarded secret and are no longer released at NEC meetings. No doubt the apparatus is worried that a rising Reform membership might be approaching Labour’s actual numbers. Finding canvassers and even candidates has become a problem.
Despite the weakness of internal Labour opposition we should organize the broadest possible action with any MPs or others who take a stand against austerity. But we cannot rely just on wider number of Labour MPs finally doing something.
We need trade unions not just to bring their banners onto this week’s demonstration but to mobilise their membership to such events and to raise the debate in the workplaces. Trade unions should use their affiliation to the Labour Party to get Starmer to change course.
Solidarity with public sector workers in the front line of the cuts will need to be organised. Opposition to Labour’s austerity is part and parcel of the ongoing process of building a left electoral alternative. Independent local and national campaigns are crucial too. The People’s Assembly demonstration of the 7th June is a welcome step forward.
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