Nearly every political current claimed some success after yesterday’s second round of the French local elections. The Socialist Party (PS) won the big towns and consolidated its base in local government. The mainstream right (LR – the Republicans) did the same in its areas of influence, and its potential Presidential candidate, Phillipe, won Le Havre. The far-right National Rally (RN) of Marine Le Pen has now established a stronger local base. 

France Unbowed (La France insoumise) of Jean Luc Mélenchon has made its first major breakthrough in local councils, winning important urban areas and over 1000 Councillors. Even the discredited Macron’s Renaissance led by Attal won more than expected.

However, in many smaller towns and villages, ‘apolitical’ slates won, often without opposition, and overall abstention was 43%.  So there is also a disengagement from political debate and mistrust of political parties. Overall, as we have seen in Britain, there is a fragmentation of politics, a two-party or two-bloc system with its relative stability is no longer operable.

Le Pen’s National Rally(RN)

The RN won 55 towns with more than 3500 inhabitants (38 in the second round). It now has 3006 councillors, more than double the 1544 it won in 2014. Its biggest win was in Nice where it allied with Ciotti who had split from the traditional French right to join with the RN. Its base remains mostly in small or medium sized towns and rural areas.  

This party can win in the ex-industrial north (Pas de Calais) and in the South East (around Nice) where the ex-French colonal settlers ended up after Algerian independence. This election shows there are limits to its influence in the big metropolitan areas like Paris, Marseille, Lyon or Lille.

Fascinating how it mirrors, to a degree, Reform in England and Wales – weaker in big cities, stronger in smaller towns in ex-industrial belts and some rural areas. Having a strong local base will not necessarily harm a candidate’s presidential ambitions. Marine Le Pen has managed to reach the second round on the last two occasions, despite a much weaker municipal presence. The PS has done badly in the Presidential elections in recent times but has a relatively strong local municipal base.

The Socialist Party (PS)

We should remember that this is a legacy party of the left, which used to alternate with the mainstream right in the presidency. Despite being beaten by Mélenchon twice in the first round of the presidential elections, it has always retained a stronger local base than the LFI. People vote differently in local and presidential elections.

Before this election, Olivier Faure, its leader, had said there would be no national alliance with the LFI in the second round to defeat the threat of the right and far right. In practice, in many key towns like Toulouse, Nantes, Tours, Grenoble, and more, this was ignored, as the PS local barons wanted to hang on to their local power bases.

Even in Tulle, the town of Francois Hollande, ex-president and very anti-LFI, the national line was broken. Many local PS members and the broader left electorate in most areas are keener for unity against the right wing than the PS leadership. In any case, there is a range of views on working with the LFI within the party.

To varying degrees, the PS had joined in the smears and political attacks on the LFI over the death of a fascist activist in a street fight with LFI supporters. It made alliances in the first round with the Ecologists and the French Communist Party (PCF).

However, this model was not universal; at the local level, first-round alliances formed between the PCF, the LFI, and even revolutionary groups such as the New Anticapitalist Party (NPA) in several places.  In a few towns, the PS even linked up with Macron’s party in the second round. 

Compared to the LFI, the PS policies are more complacent towards the apartheid Israeli state, are much less supportive of the non-white French communities, less critical of the racist police actions, and fail to challenge the neo liberal consensus – it voted for Macron’s latest budget that enabled the government to survive, unlike the LFI.

Glucksmann and the Place Publique

The question of which alliance to form for the presidential election remains a key one for the PS and the left. Raphael Glucksmann, who leads Place Publique and is more or less an ally of the PS,  received 14% of the votes in the European elections and is a presidential hopeful. He is virulently anti-LFI and is encouraging the PS leadership to clearly isolate the LFI.

He claims that the PS did well in Paris, Marseille, Lille, Montpellier,  Rennes, and Saint-Etienne precisely because it did not do a local deal with the Mélenchon-led party. He argues that the left lost Toulouse because there was an alliance. However, Bompard points out in the post-electoral LFI statement that you can also explain the defeat there, since the PS had lost previous elections and did not have a strong first-round score.

Glucksmann says the union of the left without LFI is a winning combination for the presidential elections. Today, he stated that ‘Mélenchon has become the ball and chain holding back the left’. He condemned what he called ‘his extremism and drift to antisemitism The voters of the left can be brought together, but defeat is almost certain if a LFI person is leading a left alliance.’ Glucksmann refuses to call the Israeli action in Gaza a genocide.

He wants a deal with the Ecologists, the PS, the PCF and groups like Clementine Autain’s Apres (After) who used to be leaders in the LFI before being sidelined/splitting.

Autain however has a different version of unity to Glucksmann. She wants to include the LFI and is campaigning for a primary election to choose a single left candidate for the first round of the presidential election. Given there is no proportional representation, this would give the left a better chance of getting into the second round with a single united candidature. At the moment Jean Luc Mélenchon is cool on the idea and looks keen to stand again.

France unbowed, (LFI)

Many commentators were surprised at the good scores registered by Mélenchon’s party in the first round. They expected the massive media storm around the death of the fascist militant as a result of a fight with anti fascists associated with the LFI to lead to a decline in their vote.

The LFI did not have a very strong local base prior to these elections. It had not prioritised elections at this level as it was still developing as a party. It is much harder to compete with the traditonal PS or PCF base that has been entrenched for generations in local councils.

LFI broke through this time and won more than 1000 councillors and some important towns. It did well, particularly in working-class and ethnic minority neighbourhoods, e.g., around Lyon, where it won three mayors in those areas despite the PS refusing to form an alliance for Lyon in the second round. In some places, it is replacing the PCF in its old strongholds, e.g., Saint Denis or Venisseux.

Locally, the party often made alliances with the Greens, community, and left activists, including revolutionary groups like the ACR’s sister organisation, the New Anticapitalist Party (NPA)

But can they build an alliance of the whole left around their candidate in the first round of next year’s presidential elections? Is Mélenchon the candidate best able to do this? He is a marmite candidate – fierce support and strong antipathy. Yesterday’s results show that his party is a significant force on the left, but that does not prove that it is the hegemonic current.

Mélenchon stated today that in some key places, ‘the PS dragged us down with its weak first round votes.’ He quoted Limoges and Toulouse, where, despite unity between the PS and the LFI in the second round, they failed to win.

However, in Lyon, Nantes, Tours, Strasbourg, and Grenoble, the United Left did win. In Marseille, the PS refused to unify, but the LFI candidate stood down anyway to help defeat the right. For Mélenchon, this shows his party is serious about defeating the right, whereas the sectarianism of the PS meant that the LFI would not have its due representation in the town council.

The LFI are putting forward a political project called New France. It proposes a multi cultural, multi ethnic republic compared to the traditionalist notions of the nation championed by other parties.. The role of youth in changing France is emphasised in this project.

The Mainstream right

There is an analogous debate over alliances in right-wing politics. People like Ciotti in Nice have already taken the step towards an alliance with the far-right RN.  This is the Italian road where Meloni, a far-right leader like Le Pen, is leading a coalition with the other right-wing parties.

Sections of the French capitalists are beginning to envisage this as a way forward since the Italian strategy has been a relatively stable success.  The reason is that the measures they want to take, such as cutting pensions and worsening working conditions, require a tough right-wing government. The war on migrants,  on ‘woke’, and a more repressive state is seen as necessary for implementing a neoliberal economic programme.

On the other hand, parts of the mainstream right want to unite the right with the centre, with the Macron project now expressed in the Renaissance, led by Attal, which has managed to win a presence in town halls. They sense that a hard-right programme led by the RN could destabilise the country and that a right-centrist majority that Macron achieved is still possible. 

Edouard Phillipe, the winner in Le Havre, represents this current and is a presidential hopeful. The problem is that the Macron project is discredited, and the current president could build a bloc that included many ex-socialist party voters because he had come from a government led by the party.

Next year’s presidential elections?

Everyone agrees it is hard to predict because you could have an LFI and a PS/Ecolo/PCF candidate splitting the left vote, as well as a mainstream right candidate, competing to challenge RN in the second round. Most commentators think the RN would make it through.

How far will tactical voting on the left go to decide who is the best placed to defeat the RN decisively? Could the mainstream right-wing win enough support to get through, or, more unlikely, even prevent the RN from doing so?

What happens also depends on the degree to which workplace and community struggles can develop. Workers cannot wait until the elections to defend their living standards or fight back against racism or the repression of democratic rights. Already, the hysteria against the LFI had led some right-wing politicians to float a ban on the LFI.

The LFI has taken good positions on Palestine and defending migrants. Its economic and social policies challenge capital in a way the PS never does. Its policies are tinged with ‘progressive nationalist republicanism’. It has not supported the Ukrainian people. Nevertheless, activists on the left can work with the LFI in many campaigns and even be in electoral fronts with it.

At the same time, there are problems with Mélenchon’s leadership and a lack of structured internal democracy within the movement. Local branches have a certain degree of autonomy, but all the key decisions are made by the tight-knit group around Mélenchon. It is a little like how Podemos ended up functioning in the Spanish state and how some of the leadership on the Corbyn/Many side would like to run Your Party.

Today, more than ever, we need unity in action against the current government in the streets, communities, and workplaces. The LFI achieved its best results when it began with a united slate alongside other left forces – this is the way forward.

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